Research
Work we can make public.
Market counts, sourcing results, and practical notes for buyers.
How many HVAC companies are actually big enough to buy?
We counted licensed mechanical contractors in five states and filtered to those above an eight-technician floor. The number is a fraction of what the trade bodies report.
The criterion that costs the most
Across every readout we've run, one type of screen removes more of the market than the person writing it realised.
What a 4% reply rate actually means
Direct mail benchmarks in acquisition outreach, and why the figure quoted at conferences doesn't survive contact.
Where deals die, by industry
The failure that shows up at week eight, sorted by vertical. Licensing in the trades, key-man risk in services, working capital in seasonal businesses.
Owner age is a weak signal on its own
Why succession proxies only work in combination, and which combinations we've seen predict a conversation.
We were wrong about the Southeast
A correction, with the revised counts and what caused the error.